Oil N' Gold Focus - Will OPEC Cut Or Not?

Weekly Fundamental Outlook for Energies and Metals - Will OPEC Cut Or Not?

OPEC's meeting is the focus this week. Representative from Saudi Arabia said a compliance level above 80% is required. The kingdom was the only member in the cartel that reduced production more than what was required. The theme in the meeting will be on compliance level rather than further reduction.

Switzerland's announcement of currency invention shocked the market and economists start to worry about advanced economies with exports as a high percentage of GDP will follow. Moreover, with the SNB formally joined the quantitative easing regime, other central banks with policy rates near zero will likely adopt more aggressive measures.

Both FOMC and BOJ will meet next week. While interest rates are likely remained unchanged at 0-0.25% and 0.1% respectively, more asset buying programs with inflationary and currency-depreciative nature are anticipated.

Crude Oil: Crude oil price traded with high volatility last week as there's a tug of war between potential OPEC cut (good for price) and poor economic data (bad for price). On Wednesday, the WTI April contract plummeted almost 8% to as low as 42.08 as the US Energy Department reported an unexpected increase in crude inventories (+0.75 mmb vs consensus of +0.25 mmb) as well as 3.5% drop in fuel consumption. Moreover, China, the world's second largest oil consumer reported 18% fall in crude import in February.