Saxo Bank Mar. 13 2009 : Risk taking back on the table, pushing JPY down to near 2 month lows, Asia stocks rally with China stimulus plans

Tight ranges in Asia today after SNB intervention move overnight, although most risk trades benefitting from the optimism with a possible additional boost to China's economy with additional stimulus spending. Premier Wen Jiabao told reporters that Beijing could 'at any time' add up to 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) of stimulus measures to revive the world's third largest economy.

Midday break saw some Japan and Singapore numbers coming out, possibly putting a cap on the optimism seen today, although optimism should continue on for european markets.

Overnight, Bank of America came out with similar news to what was reported earlier with JP Morgan and Citigroup, that they too were profitable in the first two months of the year. The news sent financials rallying strongly into the U.S close.

Fitch cut their credit ratings on Warren Buffet's enormous investment vehicle, Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

Crude oil rose $4 and saw buying ahead of OPEC meeting this weekend. Speculation high that OPEC might call for the 4th cut in as many meetings to support oil prices, CAD not responding to the move.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION

Big move overnight in FX world was SNB intervening to avoid swiss franc appreciation. The SNB also cut rates by 25 basis points to 0.25%. Asia quietly digesting the move, tight range for USDCHF and EURCHF for now. Expect momentum to pick up when Europe opens.

Singapore (Jan) Retail Sales MoM -12.2% V -0.3% expected

Japan Consumer Confidence 27.6 V 27.0 prior

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THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION

Euro-zone Retail Sales (MoM) Jan. Expected 0.2%. Prior 0.0% around 10:00am GMT

Canadian Unemployment Rate (Feb). Expected 7.4%. Prior 7.2% around 11:00am GMT

US Trade Balance (Jan). Expected -$38.0B. Prior -$39.9B around 12:30 GMT

US University of Michigan Confidence (Mar) Prior 1.2% around 14:00 GMT

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Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

EURUSD
Resist.
1.3290
1.3076
1.2992
1.2898
1.2778
1.2648
1.2434
Support
Quoted: 13 Mar 09 05:41 GMT

GBPUSD
Resist.
1.4449
1.4161
1.4049
1.3888
1.3762
1.3587
1.3299
Support
Quoted: 13 Mar 09 05:41 GMT

USDJPY
Resist.
103.05
100.17
98.94
97.73
96.06
94.42
91.55
Support
Quoted: 13 Mar 09 05:41 GMT

EURJPY
Resist.
133.49
129.19
127.66
126.07
123.36
120.58
116.28
Support
Quoted: 13 Mar 09 05:41 GMT

USDCAD
Resist.
1.3217
1.3025
1.2900
1.2776
1.2709
1.2642
1.2450
Support
Quoted: 13 Mar 09 05:43 GMT

USDCHF
Resist.
1.2724
1.2247
1.2047
1.1907
1.1571
1.1295
1.0818
Support
Quoted: 13 Mar 09 05:42 GMT

AUDUSD
Resist.
0.6845
0.6678
0.6611
0.6531
0.6445
0.6345
0.6178
Support
Quoted: 13 Mar 09 05:42 GMT

NZDUSD
Resist.
0.5506
0.5338
0.5270
0.5196
0.5102
0.5002
0.4834
Support
Quoted: 13 Mar 09 05:42 GMT